Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c89a48c00c3fd565dd4a2a92e2cbb44eaf547b5fe03d4bd4ce25ea100cf1db2

Rebuilt 45 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $303,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $185,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,265 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	9,351$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	9,285$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.28	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	7,900$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.9	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	6,717$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.26	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	6,466$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.93	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,201$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	5,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	5,000$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.63	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	1c	4,672$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,300$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.27	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	4,213$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.22	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	2c	3,942$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.01	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes	5c	3,857$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.52	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	3,780$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,449$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.51	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	2,730$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.15	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	4c	2,700$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.72	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,579$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,264$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.73	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	3c	2,236$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.61	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	2c	2,199$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,131$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	1c	2,090$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	2c	2,079$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.32	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	1,909$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.4	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	16c	1,908$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.95	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	11c	1,878$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.41	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	1,848$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.57	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,555$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.24	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c3…aebabacked Yes	2c	1,554$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	1,507$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	1c	1,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	6c	1,500$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…39f2backed Yes	1c	1,292$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa562…6581backed Yes	9c	1,120$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes	7c	1,114$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.56	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	1c	1,100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	949.95$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.66	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	5c	936.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.01	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	889.91$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	4c	887.66$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb0…5324backed Yes	2c	887.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked Yes	6c	805.02$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+120.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	3c	800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bd1…d2f6backed Yes	7c	720$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	12c	700$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa714…ab88backed Yes	15c	686.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x280f…1963backed Yes	6c	670.1$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	666.57$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.6	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b8…11a5backed Yes	11c	666$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.87	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	+13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	656.68$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	3c	608.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	569.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	12c	534.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.67	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	17c	529.41$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	12c	521.56$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	6c	496.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.17	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	8c	476.34$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	4c	471.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.42	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	467.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	5c	457.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	449.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	17c	443.02$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.31	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes	11c	421.58$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	4c	418.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	416.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	16c	411.95$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.91	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	11c	374.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.76	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	3c	362.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked Yes	8c	356.41$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.32	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	352.92$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	10c	339.89$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.62	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e1…0fa0backed Yes	7c	337.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	10c	320$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	4c	299.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	292.26$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.59	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…08a4backed Yes	17c	235.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86f…1660backed Yes	6c	224.94$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	7c	222$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc28e…01bfbacked Yes	17c	195.06$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes	15c	193.02$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.03	101	44.6%45 W · 56 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	14c	175$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	14c	174.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	15c	174.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.69	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfed…3d4fbacked Yes	17c	172.12$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	16c	171$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbcf…d02cbacked Yes	17c	170$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe645…fbdebacked Yes	13c	148.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes	14c	130$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce5…425bbacked Yes	17c	123$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fb…c2cfbacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event