World Politics · resolved market
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdcd65ce03b31e1c8444c5813f709dd258b7d90d4d81ae644a0351cd26de2d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b3…40b1backed Yes | 19c | 1,571$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,187$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…43cfbacked Yes | 9c | 939.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 12c | 909.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 76c | 800$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.38 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…21a1backed No | 80c | 768$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 685$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 19c | 681.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 19c | 630$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 605.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 20c | 598.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 520.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 506.77$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 475.11$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 412.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 403.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 385.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 372.65$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 23c | 342.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…9dfebacked Yes | 4c | 288.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 287.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 80c | 258$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 75c | 242.18$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…6815backed Yes | 22c | 223.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked No | 75c | 217.86$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 196.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…efdebacked Yes | 24c | 164$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…e5ecbacked Yes | 21c | 155.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…0b81backed Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…6a93backed Yes | 9c | 139.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…524abacked Yes | 17c | 121.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 121.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 104.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d3…aedbbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…9783backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…28bbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…c392backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…4432backed No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 82.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 76.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed No | 72c | 69.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…894bbacked No | 75c | 66.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 75c | 62.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 18c | 60.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 23c | 60.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…7453backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +224.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…dc97backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…a1dfbacked Yes | 27c | 40.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked No | 76c | 40.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 75c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…91e5backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…d758backed No | 80c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?this page
- Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.