TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36d3…aedb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
124
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT8116%13 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 81 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+447.9%+$163.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.9
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+495.2%+$208
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.8
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.3
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+510.1%+$411.1
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.52
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.78
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.56
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.86
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+710.8%+$263
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$82
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$164
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$176
Showing 25 of 81 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$33.1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.2
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$113.28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$104.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+138.7%+$46.48
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+616.8%+$258.15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.73
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$13.92
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$81.69
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$28.41
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+56%+$35.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Algeria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.