Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694fb521fe10c636b654df307ce1333f884827f3957257062f05bbc7d05b3bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,053$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 394.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 392.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 48c | 379.28$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.29 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 46c | 358.36$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…3c7abacked Yes | 3c | 342.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 288.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 6c | 267.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 41c | 263.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 70c | 224.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed Yes | 50c | 215.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 50c | 196.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 193.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 183.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…8a5cbacked Yes | 44c | 182.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 10c | 167.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 7c | 161.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 153.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 153.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 54c | 150.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 23c | 147.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 146.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 58c | 141.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 136.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 22c | 134.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 12c | 132.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 8c | 128.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 125.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…0dcbbacked No | 53c | 123.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 45c | 119.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 57c | 118.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 25c | 115.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 111.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 50c | 108.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 10c | 104.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 102.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…add7backed Yes | 53c | 101.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 101.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…3070backed Yes | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Yes | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d3…aedbbacked Yes | 48c | 99.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 11c | 97.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 44c | 97.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 96.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 94.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 35c | 82.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 82.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 45c | 82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 76.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 48c | 69.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 55c | 67.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 51c | 64.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…d20abacked Yes | 17c | 62.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 47c | 62.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 54c | 62.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…efe7backed Yes | 42c | 60.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 53c | 58.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 43c | 58.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 48c | 56.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 36c | 53.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 52.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 41c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 38c | 49.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 26c | 49.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 37c | 46.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 48c | 44.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 57c | 44.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 43.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 42c | 42.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 57c | 41.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 41.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 43c | 41.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 56c | 38.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 38.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 48c | 36.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 34.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 33c | 31.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 59c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 54c | 30.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 55c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 50c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 46c | 26.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.