Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x939c61ba0d7ec46d09b96c6553dc28dc7ef9f8b9c15de8dce397914909b6969f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 8c | 937$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 34c | 746.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.3 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…e8aebacked No | 2c | 732.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 9c | 719.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 35c | 622.55$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.53 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…d9bdbacked No | 75c | 567.88$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 42c | 562.96$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 515.26$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 32c | 502.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.67 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 12c | 481.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 55c | 432.34$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.54 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked No | 7c | 341.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 291.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 74c | 269.87$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 215.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 14c | 196.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 183.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 19c | 183.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 166.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 30c | 156.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 150.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 150.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 33c | 141.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 60c | 135.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 71c | 134.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 18c | 132.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 79c | 124.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 28c | 121.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 35c | 112.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 53c | 112.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 33c | 109.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 58c | 108.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 23c | 106.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 70c | 101.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed No | 70c | 98.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 70c | 98.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 58c | 97.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 24c | 96.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 71c | 95.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 92.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed Yes | 56c | 88.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 58c | 88.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 15c | 88.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed No | 69c | 86.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 16c | 86.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 85.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 22c | 83.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…ef23backed Yes | 30c | 83.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 82.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 19c | 81.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 18c | 80.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed No | 55c | 79.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 78.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 78.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 24c | 78.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 76.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 78c | 73.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 55c | 69.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 68c | 67.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 64.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 76c | 62.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 62.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 60.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 57c | 60.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 26c | 60.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…efe7backed Yes | 25c | 59.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 75c | 56.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 27c | 56.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 55.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 58c | 51.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 61c | 50.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 64c | 49.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 38c | 49.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 49.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…d20abacked Yes | 29c | 40.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 44c | 39.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…f6e9backed No | 80c | 37.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 59cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…b420backed No | 80c | 35.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.