Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928a6363b410c06da6980a7f9584088ad3117983db9ceca09004f145e96c6fdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 3c | 951.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 869.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 18c | 799.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 488.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 368.04$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 360.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 72c | 261.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 7c | 243.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 181.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 180.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 26c | 169.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 21c | 159.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 133.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 31c | 121.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 114.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…0667backed No | 79c | 109.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 108.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 106.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 29c | 100.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 30c | 100.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 19c | 99.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…932dbacked Yes | 27c | 99.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…8a5cbacked Yes | 26c | 96.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 21c | 95.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 94.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 19c | 79.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 76.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 79c | 72.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 68.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 74c | 66.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 25c | 63.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 59.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 32c | 58.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 55.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 78c | 51.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 50.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 22c | 48.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 46.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 75c | 43.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…efe7backed Yes | 29c | 42.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 74c | 33.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…98e2backed No | 74c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 80c | 30.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 40c | 29.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 25.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 72c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 60c | 19.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dee8backed No | 77c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…2982backed No | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 72c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…85d1backed No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…6950backed No | 74c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.