Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51c0f9f624575c94bf8d97f503fb6ea58b0509a1f9495e0be863db26f6617df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 1,544$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 952.47$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 604.93$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 36c | 565.08$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.15 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…5fc8backed Yes | 6c | 535.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 34c | 425.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 18c | 421.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 378.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b3…f704backed Yes | 4c | 362.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 335.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 334.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 36c | 328.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 322.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 319.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked No | 63c | 305.18$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 35c | 301.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 244.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 239.23$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 21c | 236.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 236.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 38c | 206.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 199.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 59c | 199.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 199.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 47c | 182.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 180.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 33c | 172.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 162.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 45c | 160.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 156.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 70c | 150.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 149.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed Yes | 7c | 147.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 50c | 138.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 50c | 135.67$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 19c | 126.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 124.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 29c | 118.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 118.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 39c | 117.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 106.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 69c | 100.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d3…aedbbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…3070backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff8e…1438backed Yes | 36c | 96.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 36c | 95.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 31c | 90.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Yes | 53c | 88.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 36c | 85.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 79.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 40c | 77.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 46c | 75.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 74.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 32c | 69.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 42c | 68.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 40c | 60.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 59.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 56.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 33c | 56.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 36c | 54.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 38c | 54.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…39bfbacked Yes | 40c | 51.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 49.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 34c | 49.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 43c | 49.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked No | 52c | 48.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…44c4backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 46.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 30c | 44.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 31c | 44.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Yes | 48c | 43.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 30c | 41.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 40.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 31c | 39.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 43c | 38.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 64c | 37.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 35c | 37.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 36.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 34.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 56c | 33.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 46c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.