Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea8bb8fd3e086b8fd406733f4300f8b0df0233f510ebca344208f3621e29de9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 17c | 2,807$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.82 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed Yes | 66c | 1,892$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 14c | 1,391$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.21 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 18c | 1,265$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 1,231$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,106$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.06 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 1c | 1,088$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 47c | 1,069$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.66 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 931.1$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 845.49$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.56 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 42c | 737.78$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.53 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 7c | 631.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 8c | 623.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.05 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 6c | 547.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.99 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 547.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 496.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 7c | 418.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.97 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 399.69$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.81 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 41c | 380.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.7 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 338.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 67c | 310.9$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 37c | 310.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.22 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 10c | 296.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.09 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 284.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 36c | 284.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.97 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 5c | 265.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 57c | 264.74$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 9c | 256.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.47 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 14c | 246.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.72 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 246.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 12c | 240.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 9c | 236.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.56 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 228.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 12c | 228.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 22c | 227.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 214.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 187.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 48c | 185.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 183.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…4e2bbacked Yes | 12c | 177.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 174.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 68c | 168.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 53c | 167.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 62c | 165.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 15c | 164.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 160.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 9c | 159$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.69 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 14c | 154.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 56c | 143.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 14c | 131.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 11c | 122.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 56c | 120.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 36c | 110.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…3b30backed Yes | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…4b28backed Yes | 13c | 99.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 80c | 98.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 96.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 37c | 92.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…2a60backed Yes | 11c | 91.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…416ebacked Yes | 15c | 91.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 39c | 91.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 16c | 89.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 87.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 77c | 83.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked No | 53c | 82.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 79.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 78.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 15c | 78.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 63c | 77.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 77.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 37c | 76.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 33c | 68.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 73c | 67.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 63.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 25c | 58.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 23c | 50.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 78c | 50.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 47c | 47.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked Yes | 66c | 44.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 27c | 41.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 50c | 39.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 42c | 37.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 42c | 35.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 33c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 55c | 31.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 37c | 30.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…9ccabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 39c | 26.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.