Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f57627d29821c298948d84f818c14c611f7fd2bd0ce99518b1b283f8891b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b48…9072backed Yes | 14c | 2,275$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 44c | 1,229$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 945.71$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 63c | 850.1$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.62 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 4c | 835.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 59c | 824.41$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.44 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 48c | 757.17$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.01 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 58c | 647.25$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 645.79$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…2a60backed Yes | 3c | 638.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d67…8f33backed Yes | 15c | 631.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…c792backed Yes | 53c | 630.17$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 3c | 499.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 72c | 489.51$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 64c | 410.28$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.39 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 400.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 53c | 372.8$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.02 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 54c | 359.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 342.81$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 26c | 337.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 46c | 316.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 51c | 315.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 299.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 77c | 288.29$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 287.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 283.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 51c | 274.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 274.13$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 58c | 260.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 50c | 256.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 12c | 254.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed Yes | 25c | 250.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 24c | 246.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 243.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed Yes | 36c | 221.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 211.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 51c | 204.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 46c | 199.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 42c | 199.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 65c | 197.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 35c | 194.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed Yes | 48c | 194.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 38c | 190.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 10c | 187.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 175.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 173.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 61c | 173.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 52c | 166.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 144.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 43c | 144.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 49c | 143.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 143.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 19c | 137.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 70c | 134.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 132.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 11c | 129.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 15c | 126.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 46c | 122.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 55c | 119.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 42c | 117.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 116.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 63c | 114.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 56c | 103.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 48c | 99.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 96.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 93.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed Yes | 25c | 92.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 58c | 91.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 55c | 90.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 51c | 90.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 47c | 88.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 87.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 87.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 57c | 84.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 44c | 82.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 49c | 79.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 56c | 79.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 62c | 78.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 76.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 43c | 76.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 51c | 76.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 61c | 75.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c55dbacked Yes | 26c | 72.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 43c | 70.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked No | 77c | 69.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…0667backed No | 61c | 68.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 23c | 67.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked Yes | 57c | 67.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 54c | 65.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…39bfbacked Yes | 43c | 65.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 22c | 65.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 58c | 64.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 52c | 63.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 46c | 62.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.