World Politics · resolved market
Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b81f8b1bfa3698a7277800322084f190680359f05a4df15bb801e8beeecdd20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 3,124$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 6c | 2,746$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,778$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed No | 77c | 1,298$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed No | 80c | 1,175$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,137$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 26c | 1,110$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Yes | 25c | 896.24$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 1c | 815.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 783.11$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 11c | 747.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 708.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 663.49$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 8c | 614$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 11c | 573.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes | 11c | 504.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 7c | 418$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…8c70backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 6c | 379$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 7c | 347$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 7c | 340$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…fc45backed Yes | 11c | 287.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…094fbacked Yes | 27c | 275.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 7c | 274$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 4c | 261$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…d84bbacked No | 71c | 254.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 7c | 253$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 7c | 219$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 7c | 203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…3365backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…9b5fbacked Yes | 11c | 199.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 6c | 194$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 6c | 168$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 7c | 167$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 29c | 156.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 7c | 149$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 7c | 149$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…c58ebacked No | 71c | 140.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 8c | 138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 24c | 132.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…d7e1backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…f9edbacked Yes | 31c | 95.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…3176backed No | 77c | 81.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed No | 70c | 75.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…536abacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 24c | 49.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…58fbbacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…61b8backed Yes | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked No | 56c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…558fbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31?this page
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Yes won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?No won
- Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.