TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Raptors, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,767,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,767,021 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns40c228,179$91,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,177.8587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Raptors61c213,429$130,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,191.7911955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Suns38c150,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,999.7116841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Suns39c128,205$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,205.0543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Raptors59c108,797$64,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,207.541,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Raptors57c90,630$51,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,659.184257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Suns55c86,264$47,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,663.7820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…e757backed Suns40c80,000$32,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,669.3811547%54 W · 61 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors59c68,817$40,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,939.842,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Raptors42c62,320$26,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,025.73946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Raptors62c60,000$37,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,20044352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Raptors62c53,471$33,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,152.2441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Raptors0c53,282$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.645213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Suns38c49,997$18,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,998.3172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Raptors57c49,276$28,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,038.8732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Raptors62c40,000$24,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,80012639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Raptors38c40,000$15,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,099.981,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Raptors61c40,000$24,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,199.9117249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Raptors38c38,080$14,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,30042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Raptors33c37,498$12,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,439.2348343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Raptors27c36,785$9,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,936.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors61c33,851$20,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,637.162,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Raptors62c32,160$19,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,939.259646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Raptors63c31,678$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0005567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns41c30,299$12,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,876.41,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns56c30,033$16,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,105.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Raptors48c27,132$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,00017247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Raptors45c27,104$12,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,133.791,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns39c25,942$10,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,892.124,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Raptors33c25,453$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.6234456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns68c25,367$17,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,231.41,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Raptors34c22,473$7,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,544.5377348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Raptors62c20,242$12,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,546.551,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Suns51c20,145$10,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,809.631,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d6…ed00backed Raptors0c20,017$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Raptors62c19,915$12,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,347.1413959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns65c19,734$12,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,933.398,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed Raptors15c18,825$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793.724337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors59c18,336$10,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,823.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Raptors60c16,531$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0009330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa115…6c5abacked Suns51c16,508$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,007.992250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns64c16,451$10,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,917.93,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns65c16,087$10,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.691,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Raptors61c15,475$9,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,370.6131453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns68c15,460$10,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,973.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Suns39c14,103$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,602.563729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Suns52c13,900$7,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,652.9810743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Raptors62c13,108$8,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,126.992,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae0…814bbacked Suns44c12,630$5,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.11457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Suns40c12,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.995352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors38c11,526$4,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,348.363,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors62c11,217$6,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,954.541,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Suns39c11,015$4,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,719.158728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Raptors61c10,938$6,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,672.1825049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Suns43c10,640$4,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,056.2662347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Suns42c10,639$4,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,148.4314450.7%73 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Raptors55c10,335$5,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,647.9339349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Suns39c10,235$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,243.074942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors3c10,125$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1bd…7235backed Raptors5c10,077$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.596429.7%19 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50f…2b9abacked Raptors54c10,000$5,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,446.3914733.3%49 W · 98 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Suns39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,1009018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Suns39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.998840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Suns39c9,962$3,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,076.6310641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x532f…e626backed Suns74c9,900$7,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.075360.4%32 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors58c9,853$5,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,757.729,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc6…1d96backed Suns43c9,640$4,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,459.731566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+73.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed Raptors59c9,200$5,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4284445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7792…b63bbacked Suns41c9,200$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.994940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Raptors61c9,074$5,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,535.361,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Raptors0c9,043$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.998820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9834…ed7abacked Suns44c8,900$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf9…461abacked Raptors56c8,800$4,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,92810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9e…c68cbacked Raptors56c8,800$4,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,92810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8281…7145backed Suns44c8,700$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…77fbbacked Raptors56c8,700$4,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,87210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Raptors62c8,678$5,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,349.6623553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefd2…46f5backed Suns44c8,650$3,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2995…fccebacked Suns45c8,650$3,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,788.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc5…bba6backed Raptors56c8,600$4,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,81610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Suns38c8,553$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,302.6316640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Suns46c8,500$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,629.8229250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Raptors48c8,396$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00035650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Suns64c8,390$5,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,053.5714766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors58c8,234$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,775.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6959…c574backed Suns44c8,203$3,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,593.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Suns38c8,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9601,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc29e…93c9backed Raptors55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Raptors62c7,950$4,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9291,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Suns44c7,821$3,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,379.7314663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Raptors21c7,805$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.149450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Raptors6c7,761$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7818343.7%80 W · 103 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4453…dd3bbacked Suns66c7,719$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.324573.3%33 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Suns39c7,662$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,674.124619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns53c7,629$4,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,611.82,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Suns39c7,524$2,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,589.7611243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Raptors30c7,500$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2509629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22f…cdb7backed Raptors57c7,301$4,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,161.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63e…0b44backed Suns43c7,300$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed Raptors55c7,101$3,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,940.727864.1%50 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.