NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460a847be8f1b2a2273496c5d228332604ade7c9dbc4704b495cc62ab663ee17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Raptors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Raptors | 30c | 971.77$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.54 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Raptors | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Suns | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 74c | 561$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Raptors | 23c | 251.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Suns | 44c | 225.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47d…2834backed Suns | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Raptors | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Suns | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Suns | 68c | 50.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Raptors | 24c | 49.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…9c61backed Suns | 68c | 42.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Suns | 71c | 31.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Suns: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. SunsSuns won
- Raptors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Under won
- Royce O'Neale: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.