NBA · resolved market
Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f85adf05c4f7baad563e87ad10caddd0344cc7510393b89f171a9cf969c55b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,317 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 70c | 571.67$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.73 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…5fc1backed Yes | 30c | 450.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd3…f0f7backed Yes | 26c | 247.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…0504backed Yes | 29c | 189.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…570fbacked Yes | 28c | 156.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed Yes | 15c | 99.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 71c | 93.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 71c | 64.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed No | 72c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Royce O'Neale: Rebounds O/U 4.5this page
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. SunsSuns won
- Raptors vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Raptors vs. Suns: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5Under won
- Royce O'Neale: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.