Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf14009cf303cddacafaa2d932647a57c5f2020b820072556a4986fc722d316bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes | 2c | 8,837$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes | 8c | 2,457$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 2,150$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,997$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 9c | 1,534$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 30c | 1,324$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.71 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…f1cfbacked Yes | 45c | 696.18$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 671.9$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…9958backed Yes | 2c | 441.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 4c | 433.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…721ebacked Yes | 22c | 391.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 11c | 364.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 359.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 343.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 277.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 255.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 247.85$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 239.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 38c | 216.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 7c | 214.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…8c1ebacked Yes | 20c | 206.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 40c | 199.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 42c | 196.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 196.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 44c | 195.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 23c | 181.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 180.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 178.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 43c | 168.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 164.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 157.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…9a40backed Yes | 43c | 152.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed Yes | 17c | 144.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 19c | 141.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 25c | 131.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 48c | 124.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Yes | 47c | 124.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 123.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…5962backed Yes | 47c | 121.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 118.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 55c | 116.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 113.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 30c | 113.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 19c | 112.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 9c | 106.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 36c | 106$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 105.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 104.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 101.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…1245backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…372fbacked No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 19c | 99.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…bbf5backed Yes | 44c | 98.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 50c | 97.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…fb8cbacked No | 61c | 97.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 15c | 97.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 60c | 95.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…3070backed Yes | 40c | 90.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 89.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 15c | 81.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 49c | 80.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c6…b7ebbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 76c | 78.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 51c | 77.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 25c | 77.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…a1c0backed Yes | 49c | 72.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 45c | 66.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 65.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 47c | 60.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 17c | 59.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 45c | 56.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 56.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 26c | 53.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 53.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7404…d580backed Yes | 37c | 50.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 49c | 49.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed No | 64c | 49.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 51c | 48.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 22c | 48.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…993cbacked Yes | 47c | 47.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 61c | 45.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 44c | 42.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 61c | 42.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 43c | 39.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 46c | 38.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 38.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 29c | 37.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 51c | 36.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.