TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes14c3,349$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.484,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c1,483$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.753,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No80c548.7$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3521865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes8c528.84$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0112033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes9c441.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8515334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf821…f546backed Yes30c321.82$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.112222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes8c312.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.781,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed No66c305$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.78143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes23c299.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.265625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes50c279.96$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2826827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f8…750bbacked Yes26c275.71$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.352317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c229.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.557,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c229.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.389,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b3…eed5backed Yes30c223.49$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.582119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c212.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.032,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa643…3551backed Yes18c203.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes8c200.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-45.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8af…603bbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb9d…6804backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602119%4 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35cd…36a8backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf79…92b6backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes31c199.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf565…cb93backed Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602425%6 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x113f…120ebacked Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes30c199.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.992020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2783…22c0backed No73c196.88$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.563770.3%26 W · 11 L+6.0wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed No69c188.08$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes34c184.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.848,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94da…25b5backed Yes6c181.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.913707.8%29 W · 341 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x737d…d0febacked Yes18c159.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.456662.1%41 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes9c144$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3643525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes11c140.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3374023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a49…4448backed No70c138.57$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed Yes9c135.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8719353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes18c134.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.551,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f9…1a73backed No78c128.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.253187.1%27 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2b0…372fbacked No51c112.18$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.97875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes19c110.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c104.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes21c99.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No80c97.44$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7424370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa0…8b8ebacked Yes14c86.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-77.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x058a…ed5cbacked Yes22c82.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ef…ed56backed Yes33c80.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes19c71.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ad…82bdbacked No70c69.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.795326.4%14 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No75c60.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9442857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab14…e786backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8511243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes23c57.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes49c53.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3535362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No71c50.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9557038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c51…4841backed Yes40c49.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No72c48.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7443663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…1075backed Yes49c46.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.752580%20 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No45c46.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4723547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes72c40.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1738633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c6…ad9dbacked No47c40.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.35853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3162555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c36.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.452,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b1…f426backed No76c34.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.283571.4%25 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3e…38cebacked No70c32.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.895100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c31.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…2ea8backed Yes49c30.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ef…3c3abacked No50c30.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.146854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42d7…c6b5backed No69c29.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a5…40aebacked No79c29.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.172075%15 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No49c29.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8141460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed No73c28.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.794955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6e89backed No43c28.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2829…8799backed No70c27.71$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-15%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9954…b725backed No70c27.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.158360.2%50 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked No70c26.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No70c24.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.288466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No70c24.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.283,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…c8bbbacked No77c20.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No51c19.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6117855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b7…4a73backed No70c19.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.823278.1%25 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x711a…17a6backed No69c19.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.961560%9 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea7…6c92backed No68c19.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No78c16.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.511,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe747…a984backed No70c14.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.373060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.