Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027d0a5755ace512642997fb14cf36227c2ab785a2f4d80cb7a43d09abc50b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 3,349$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,483$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 80c | 548.7$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 8c | 528.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 9c | 441.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 30c | 321.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 312.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 66c | 305$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 299.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 50c | 279.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 26c | 275.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 229.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 229.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 30c | 223.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 212.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…3551backed Yes | 18c | 203.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 200.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 73c | 196.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed No | 69c | 188.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 184.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 6c | 181.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked Yes | 18c | 159.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 9c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 11c | 140.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a49…4448backed No | 70c | 138.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed Yes | 9c | 135.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 18c | 134.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 78c | 128.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…372fbacked No | 51c | 112.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 19c | 110.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 104.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 99.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 97.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…8b8ebacked Yes | 14c | 86.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Yes | 22c | 82.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…ed56backed Yes | 33c | 80.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 71.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked No | 70c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 60.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 57.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 49c | 53.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 50.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed Yes | 40c | 49.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 72c | 48.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed Yes | 49c | 46.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 45c | 46.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 72c | 40.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 47c | 40.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 36.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 76c | 34.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…38cebacked No | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 31.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…2ea8backed Yes | 49c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 50c | 30.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42d7…c6b5backed No | 69c | 29.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 73c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6e89backed No | 43c | 28.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…8799backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 70c | 26.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked No | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…6c92backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.