Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x987d785bba513b70b53fc5559f59e33f3303df108bbcd55f319da9002687882d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 33c | 975.04$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 605.82$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 498.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 488.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 15c | 428.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 399.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 382.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 370$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 24c | 334.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 32c | 317.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 279.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 34c | 238.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 233.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 220.62$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 212.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 202.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 27c | 200.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…88a4backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…6b73backed Yes | 31c | 178.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 29c | 178.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed Yes | 18c | 173.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 20c | 169.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…88a4backed Yes | 33c | 162.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 77c | 155.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 32c | 152.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 151.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…0ddcbacked No | 68c | 145.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 142.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 33c | 141.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 134.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 28c | 133.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 29c | 126.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ba…67e9backed Yes | 30c | 125.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 118.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 16c | 113.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 17c | 112.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 68c | 109.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 108$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 99.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 96.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 75c | 92.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 33c | 85.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 20c | 79.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 20c | 79.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 77.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 69c | 75.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed Yes | 19c | 74.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked Yes | 25c | 73.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Yes | 19c | 72.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 72.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 23c | 71.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed No | 79c | 70.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 69.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 74c | 67.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 30c | 64.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 62.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed Yes | 30c | 62.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 25c | 55.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 34c | 55.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 20c | 54.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 52.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 74c | 50.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed No | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 45.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 45.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 25c | 45.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 74c | 43.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 77c | 37.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…41b8backed Yes | 34c | 36.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 78c | 34.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 74c | 31.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 77c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 66c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…6c7ebacked No | 70c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 70c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 71c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 72c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…97c3backed No | 69c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 67c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdec…1d55backed No | 75c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 80c | 14.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.