TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe110…ca16backed Yes1c10,046$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca5…e859backed Yes1c3,161$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+54%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed Yes1c3,099$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3282…9d49backed Yes8c1,591$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c1,123$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.584,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe019…f862backed Yes18c993.36$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9128021.8%61 W · 219 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c580.46$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes14c549.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.52425%6 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+104.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes36c546.95$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes16c546.44$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.441,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes19c510.8$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f44…ace3backed No79c378.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.286660.6%40 W · 26 L+11.9wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+52.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes16c377.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4410225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes14c371.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes14c356.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes14c342.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.91,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes11c338.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5824921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes18c289.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8769520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes9c276.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9233018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No78c269.89$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7220172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes15c264.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No78c256.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes12c254.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.565543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes10c229.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5549038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes20c226.46$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6144147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c222.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c208.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0821429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes11c205.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b11…ce49backed Yes27c194.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.668113.6%11 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes12c193.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.711926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c187.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes16c182.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.062,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde72…b5b1backed Yes11c178$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7421131.8%67 W · 144 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c176.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c169.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No74c161.05$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8714168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea7…d6b6backed Yes16c154.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c133.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.421,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes13c132.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3645619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes14c132.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c130.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.613,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes17c127.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes12c118.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.691,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes18c114.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0814632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes16c111.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8423022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc9…2847backed Yes14c107.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes11c103.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8820835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes14c102.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2736819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No80c102.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5634748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0209…e1a8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+39.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc69…5797backed Yes23c99.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232025%5 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed Yes16c95.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.319221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes15c89.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c84.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d6…1c0abacked Yes22c83.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.431833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes24c72.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3131029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c71.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No74c70.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2331542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f9…1a73backed No79c67.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.393187.1%27 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d4…5e5fbacked No78c65.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.522123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No78c62.63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7330664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes22c56.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5622028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c54.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.551,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes27c54.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No79c46.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6518550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No70c44.61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5335168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…2d6abacked No77c38.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfb…de25backed No78c29.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No66c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6690734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked No80c19.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.925971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No76c15.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.77777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No78c15.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4140777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No79c14.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.193580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d3d…bb53backed No80c14.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.97580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No76c14.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3331868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.