Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2779b793a8d3de20caf3cdab87533eb47076a4061b062eb7cbb2639a4e9bf0d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 32c | 1,832$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.55 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 78c | 1,075$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 32c | 989.62$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 953.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 68c | 772.29$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.71 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 761.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 638.06$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 43c | 480.39$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 54c | 459.11$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.85 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 435.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 50c | 399.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.06 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 339.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 78c | 337.25$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 41c | 321.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe110…ca16backed Yes | 79c | 283.34$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 13c | 272.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 35c | 269.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 258.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 255.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 53c | 251.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 31c | 249.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 39c | 243.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 24c | 238.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 68c | 233$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 10c | 210.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 25c | 206.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 61c | 196.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 74c | 194.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 67c | 160.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 29c | 149.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 71c | 149.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 11c | 145.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 23c | 139.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 32c | 138.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…d38dbacked No | 17c | 136.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…2847backed Yes | 59c | 134.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 25c | 133.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…41b8backed No | 46c | 129.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 126.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 121.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 33c | 121.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 55c | 121.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…98edbacked Yes | 75c | 120.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 117.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 113$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdec…1d55backed Yes | 77c | 109.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 32c | 106.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed No | 67c | 106.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 104.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 41c | 104.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 101.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…2fdebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 23c | 99.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…d6b6backed Yes | 53c | 98.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 29c | 97.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 95.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 94.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 54c | 94.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 38c | 86.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…d74bbacked Yes | 33c | 85.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 18c | 84.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 57c | 81.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 51c | 79.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 36c | 77.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 66c | 75.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 30c | 74.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 75c | 73.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 71.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d6…1c0abacked Yes | 54c | 68.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…a1c0backed Yes | 72c | 67.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 66.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 60c | 65.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 65.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked No | 26c | 63.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 68c | 63.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 37c | 60.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 57.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 57.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 34c | 54.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 56c | 51.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 35c | 51.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 50.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 57c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.