TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes2c6,136$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7157614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes2c1,888$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes43c1,079$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes21c761.17$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.181,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes3c556.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c504.19$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf936…7b96backed Yes40c464.69$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes12c461.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8364021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes36c458.57$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No57c440.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.632,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes7c423.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4851321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes31c415.03$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.565,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes4c399.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes34c396.97$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.961,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb999…b00dbacked Yes39c382.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.361618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Yes3c367.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0111342.5%48 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes12c350.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes5c350$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1560519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c341.11$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c323.89$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.427,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes42c319.3$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4118052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes30c317.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.872231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes50c315.27$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes44c301.93$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes42c275.32$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.371,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c271.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes22c269.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.643441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes38c245.82$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.827416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes49c212.28$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.431050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes10c209.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5724921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb74…2402backed Yes28c206.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.421241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes15c199.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.096729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6641…ceb2backed Yes68c184.6$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.12123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c180.23$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f04…b5a1backed Yes6c168.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-72.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccc8…1725backed Yes10c167.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed No57c166.32$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.887034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes39c163.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0189951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes61c162.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No61c159.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No60c157.74$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.12,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No69c156.96$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.311,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes49c153.41$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.914731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c153$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked No67c149.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.483256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes35c147$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4511038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes31c145.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2111938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes23c140.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3114062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes47c140.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3120750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes45c137.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.022536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes11c136.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.530131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c131.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes12c127.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.814025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c125.93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes31c124$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6412233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8009…3e9abacked Yes46c122.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.81735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes26c120.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.418551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes9c115.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.576854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e37…5396backed Yes41c114.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.051546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No64c112.55$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed No65c111.9$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.565560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe122…7612backed Yes27c110.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-81.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes38c109.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9622335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes36c103.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.457758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f0…d597backed Yes46c102.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes40c101.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No49c100.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3141767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c100.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes48c100.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.449445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes31c99.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.915228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c99.39$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.248,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63f8…750bbacked Yes31c95.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.52317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed Yes28c95.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.314535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes53c94.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.141,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes36c93.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.774835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes27c92.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.461921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes35c92.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6619541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.616065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes43c90$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.75313.2%7 W · 46 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No65c88.29$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.92,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes69c83.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.528643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes28c81.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No62c81.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c80.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5a…5875backed Yes71c78.37$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No57c76.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9910780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4536…c729backed Yes50c76.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed Yes36c75.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ea…4d20backed Yes41c75.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.09933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c73.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.423,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes36c70.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1228648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes51c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c68.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.279,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes34c68.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1812317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes35c67.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.