Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f1b745553fd91ce21f922036ee52f0951abf87958c392ef67795c3df4695586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 2,444$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,034$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 4c | 988.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…7b96backed Yes | 7c | 912.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 13c | 766.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 758.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes | 3c | 648.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 639.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 637.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 663 | 21.7%144 W · 519 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 2c | 534.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 320 | 49.7%159 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 3c | 504.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 484.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 426.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 380.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 11c | 299.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 262.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 18c | 232.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 200.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed No | 72c | 199.97$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 9c | 190.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 187.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 186.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4d20backed Yes | 25c | 185.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 185.01$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 178.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 7c | 175.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 39c | 173.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 22c | 168.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 8c | 161.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 18c | 146.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 72c | 135.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 12c | 132.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 130.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,111 | 23.7%263 W · 848 L | +72.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 25c | 120.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 26c | 117.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 26c | 116.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 26c | 115.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 15c | 114.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 41c | 113.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 28c | 110.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…0fabbacked Yes | 16c | 102.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 100.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 96.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 88.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 86.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 14c | 85.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 84.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…a682backed Yes | 17c | 73.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…db1bbacked Yes | 16c | 72.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 40c | 71.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 67c | 70.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 20c | 70.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 67.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 876 | 47.9%420 W · 456 L | +40.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 29c | 64.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 27c | 61.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 23c | 57.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 55.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 915 | 34.3%314 W · 601 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…2dfebacked Yes | 25c | 49.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 23c | 49.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes | 31c | 49.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 25c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 26c | 46.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 27c | 43.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked No | 80c | 41.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…7612backed No | 78c | 40.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 59c | 39.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 69c | 33.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 78c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 29.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5245backed No | 60c | 28.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 73c | 28.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 65c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…b1d1backed No | 63c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 77c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc197…211dbacked No | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 62c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…35d9backed No | 69c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 63c | 16.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 68c | 14.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 78c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.