TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes2c2,444$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1157614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes2c1,034$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes4c988.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5937533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf936…7b96backed Yes7c912.47$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes13c766.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.572317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c758.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52,27214.8%336 W · 1,936 L+52.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes3c648.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.02170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes20c639.77$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.774023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes6c637.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0366321.7%144 W · 519 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes2c534.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9732049.7%159 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes3c504.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c484.81$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes6c426.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9512,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c380.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.129,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked Yes11c299.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c262.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.868,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes18c232.73$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.858016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c200.06$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.444,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed No72c199.97$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.992725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes9c190.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No70c187.22$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.822,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No77c186.9$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.047,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ea…4d20backed Yes25c185.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.28933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c185.01$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.681,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes10c178.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.822307.8%18 W · 212 L-0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198a…2080backed Yes7c175.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.457121.1%15 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f1…708cbacked Yes39c173.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.23735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-27%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed Yes22c168.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4612560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes8c161.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4214926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes18c146.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8610617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked No72c135.53$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.367758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea08…6191backed Yes12c132.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.972020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes15c130.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.021,11123.7%263 W · 848 L+72.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes25c120.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6725447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes26c117.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.698436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes26c116.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7119946.2%92 W · 107 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes26c115.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8411938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x902c…db6cbacked Yes15c114.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes41c113.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.07119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes28c110.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7513943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7980…0fabbacked Yes16c102.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes16c100.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8661929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73c…dd15backed Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes36c99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes21c96.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.32,74329.7%816 W · 1,927 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes22c88.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes17c86.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed Yes14c85.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6413122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c84.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.427,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes17c73.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081f…db1bbacked Yes16c72.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes40c71.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No67c70.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.310247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4d…087ebacked Yes20c70.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.262733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes25c67.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8387647.9%420 W · 456 L+40.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb999…b00dbacked Yes29c64.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.571618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes27c61.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.331833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes23c57.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1117838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes36c55.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0139541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf43…66f5backed Yes27c52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410234.3%35 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2591534.3%314 W · 601 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c2…2dfebacked Yes25c49.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes23c49.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes31c49.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.422532%8 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d76…89c6backed Yes25c49.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.313429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes26c46.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9711646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Yes27c43.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.672030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd216…044cbacked No80c41.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.461560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe122…7612backed No78c40.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-81.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No59c39.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9513067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ff…b516backed No69c33.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.362152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7723…c6d8backed No78c30.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.543070%21 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No80c29.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9754966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c47…5245backed No60c28.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe747…a984backed No73c28.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.553060%18 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No65c27.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd542…b1d1backed No63c23.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.591428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No77c22.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.216159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc197…211dbacked No61c18.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No61c18.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3353547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No62c18.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.079161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c6…35d9backed No69c18.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+56.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No63c16.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.885962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No68c14.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.718042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No78c14.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2110154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.