Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c8be3072c408af84b341ca87c247d705bf467e9d6075daf99bf808bc933ad5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 3,810$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,808$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…7b96backed Yes | 26c | 1,182$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 935.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 17c | 801.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 616.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 17c | 564.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 26c | 525.76$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 75c | 520.83$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 404.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 393.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 18c | 386.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 318.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed Yes | 10c | 293.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 266.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 29c | 253.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 250.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 15c | 240.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 11c | 231.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 222.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 215.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 205.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 12c | 200.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 196.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 40c | 195.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 189.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 44c | 188.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 13c | 188.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 188.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 10c | 169.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 9c | 166.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 18c | 163.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…8994backed Yes | 22c | 160.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 13c | 155.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 41c | 154.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 144.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 25c | 141.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 14c | 136.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 132.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes | 26c | 130.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…2402backed Yes | 32c | 125.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 122.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 119.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 42c | 111.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 111.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 110.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 25c | 110.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 36c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 109.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…c729backed Yes | 17c | 106.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 102.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532a…ea14backed Yes | 15c | 99.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 44c | 97.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 32c | 96.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 95.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 24c | 94.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 35c | 92.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed Yes | 20c | 89.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 88.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4d20backed Yes | 31c | 87.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 12c | 86.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 26c | 81.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…5875backed Yes | 41c | 79.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 40c | 79.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked Yes | 30c | 76.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 42c | 76.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 28c | 71.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 70.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…5882backed Yes | 27c | 70.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…8d09backed Yes | 28c | 70.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 67.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 65.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 65.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 63.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 63.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 37c | 62.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 60.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 55.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 58c | 52.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 33c | 52.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 40c | 52.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes | 38c | 51.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 51.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe9…4a83backed No | 77c | 50.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 41c | 50.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.