TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,623 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed No1c5,966$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes28c5,071$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,676.1130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No45c2,915$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.5842130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes78c2,881$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.395451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c1,878$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes61c1,478$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.0631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No17c1,192$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.551,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No52c1,091$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.8957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No67c976.25$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.861,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c877.93$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No16c677$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8126327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No3c626.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.067946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes10c515.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.758013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes5c514.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.972,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes19c503.55$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.8731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes14c501.36$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.6114022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc560…adbabacked No69c460.97$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes18c458.91$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.2664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes24c456.84$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.097913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c454.36$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.097,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaf74…d478backed No74c439.32$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.09955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick75cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes7c426.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.761,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes29c420.61$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.29333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf936…7b96backed Yes29c414.65$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.83425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3906004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes14c392.89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.281,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed No59c392.8$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.254731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No65c381.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.982,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes6c360.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.863441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c359.85$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.75,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes24c324.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.6316437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c316.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes66c308.89$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1224841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes14c299.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.992725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes10c280.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.655111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes68c280$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes60c277.18$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.178643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes8c271.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.7511223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes26c265.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed Yes6c251.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8919547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No37c248.81$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.217170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes20c241.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.251,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes65c226.23$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.123644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes14c224.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.8551321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c222.76$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.274,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes21c222.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed Yes15c219.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.932030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed No27c209.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.639857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c209.66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes18c199.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.792638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c196.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6772…8ef5backed Yes7c183.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+237%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes33c175.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5722335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78df…1167backed Yes23c173.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.971915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes23c172.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.231,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes27c172.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8211938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No57c169.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ff…13eabacked Yes19c161.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.442218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8009…3e9abacked Yes44c156.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes20c152.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ea…4d20backed Yes16c152.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.88933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b3…cf70backed Yes13c149.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.263066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No78c144.44$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5242469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes26c143.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.081,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes8c139.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6614062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes25c137.55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9618327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c134.91$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.361,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes24c134.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.932536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes14c133.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c130$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.871,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5685…3056backed Yes21c125.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.973132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7754…278dbacked No15c125.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.26230%0 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes22c124.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.163250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88f0…d597backed Yes30c124.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes27c118.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.491,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes10c115.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d62…6690backed Yes18c112.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+180.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9704…c785backed No78c111.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.05666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-10.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes23c109.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.910354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x509b…c90cbacked Yes36c101.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x964c…0a17backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…b5b2backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4725…8bf2backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf8…8634backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7219720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b7…dc81backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes11c99.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4931124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No52c99.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0628839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed No73c99.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.825450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed No28c97.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.644535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc801…cefebacked Yes15c97.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.931428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes38c97.15$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0428119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e29…ada0backed No80c96.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x672c…6942backed Yes15c91.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.981428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes36c90.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.845148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes34c89.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9345619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes32c88.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes20c86.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c85$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.