Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa988b5651e1172b3ccaaf8174f4c60e08b91973010810feedbab479f6d8df0c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 20c | 1,109$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…e58abacked No | 10c | 868.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 60c | 518.14$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 73c | 441.22$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.51 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 46c | 410.7$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 4c | 402.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 73c | 401.15$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.86 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b85…a3e9backed Yes | 48c | 393.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 340.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 325.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 306.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…d2fbbacked Yes | 43c | 304.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…b925backed Yes | 38c | 301.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 298.32$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 35c | 288.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 68c | 241.96$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 43c | 230.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 56c | 228.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 63c | 209.25$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…7ce1backed No | 64c | 208.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 80c | 199.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 72c | 197$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 52c | 182.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 163.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 43c | 149.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes | 72c | 148.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 146.37$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 64c | 143.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 135$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 35c | 134.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 132.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 131.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 18c | 129.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 58c | 122.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 116.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 116.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 111.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 103.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 99.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 50c | 94.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 56c | 88.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 55c | 86.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…1a06backed Yes | 70c | 86.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 40c | 85.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 54c | 84.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 82.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 48c | 82.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 50c | 81.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 30c | 80.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 80.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 34c | 79.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 78.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 53c | 75.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 17c | 75.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…38e4backed Yes | 49c | 75.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 74.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 73c | 73.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 73.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 57c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 45c | 66.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x668a…da78backed Yes | 30c | 65.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 31c | 63.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 62.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 52c | 62.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…32c1backed Yes | 47c | 60.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 60c | 60.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked No | 64c | 59.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 59.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 59.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…ee30backed Yes | 36c | 58.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 58.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 46c | 55.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 37c | 54.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 38c | 54.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…2c6dbacked Yes | 79c | 53.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 53c | 53.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 58c | 51.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…06c5backed No | 49c | 51.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 25c | 51.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 60c | 50.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 56c | 48.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…2402backed Yes | 56c | 47.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 64c | 46.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 74c | 45.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 42c | 44.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 54c | 44.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.