TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3380…da7ebacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No20c1,109$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9842130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4901…e58abacked No10c868.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes60c518.14$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.131,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes73c441.22$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5127047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb999…b00dbacked Yes46c410.7$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.381618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No4c402.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.221,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked No73c401.15$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8630919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b85…a3e9backed Yes48c393.5$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c340.8$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c325.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.427,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c306.95$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.211,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fd…d2fbbacked Yes43c304.6$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89cc…b925backed Yes38c301.28$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes54c298.32$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.374,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes35c288.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.113441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes68c241.96$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes43c230.18$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.747445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes56c228.1$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0717135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No63c209.25$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1220958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f52…7ce1backed No64c208.82$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c200$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3141…f16abacked Yes80c199.37$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.875563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes72c197$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes52c182.87$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.663250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No50c163.63$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes43c149.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9916046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes72c148.52$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes74c146.37$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.415,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes64c143.46$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.491,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes30c135$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes35c134.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c132.55$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c131.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.469,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No18c129.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9424768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No58c122.03$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.19656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes29c120$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.556131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes27c116.65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No26c116.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c111.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.178,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c103.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes25c99.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254c…bc46backed Yes50c94.31$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.791833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.55050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No56c88.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.562846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes55c86.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.819344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e27…1a06backed Yes70c86.19$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes40c85.23$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.898551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No54c84.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0814158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes28c82.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.712,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No48c82.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No50c81.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes30c80.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.536719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No22c80.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes34c79.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.422536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes42c78.68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes53c75.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes17c75.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4361929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9e…38e4backed Yes49c75.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes50c74.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe951…ea77backed No73c73.53$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.511850%9 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes21c73.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes57c71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3212033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No60c69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed Yes45c66.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1213167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x668a…da78backed Yes30c65.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes31c63.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6828648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes57c63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.193650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c62.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes52c62.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb746…32c1backed Yes47c60.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ff…4739backed Yes60c60.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.211947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.829732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked No64c59.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.684325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No50c59.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes59c59.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes36c58.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.631233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c58.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x113d…a5e6backed Yes46c55.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.722420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes37c54.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes38c54.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8419541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x135b…2c6dbacked Yes79c53.41$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed No53c53.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.887034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No58c51.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc1…06c5backed No49c51.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08100%0 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes25c51.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.436825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No60c50.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2114135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c50.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes80c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.88351.8%43 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes56c48.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.499346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb74…2402backed Yes56c47.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.931241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d4…ae97backed Yes64c46.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.663641.7%15 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No74c45.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9617570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a6…0937backed Yes42c44.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes54c44.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.722653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.