Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d9fa913743ad134db595a184dab148afb101c3ff4c6ca00c3f0a6b896af9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,412$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.09 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 74c | 1,072$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.14 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,023$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4d20backed Yes | 2c | 935.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 74c | 775.84$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 502.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 24c | 400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 306.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 302.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 32c | 292.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 34c | 255.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 227.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 219.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 69c | 199.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 194.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 183.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 171.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 169.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 168.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 8c | 153.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 30c | 153$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 148.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 148.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 146.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 43c | 144.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd707…89d6backed Yes | 33c | 139.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 68c | 138.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked No | 70c | 129.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 129.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 52c | 127.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 77c | 126.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 36c | 122.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 116.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 35c | 116.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes | 32c | 116.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 115.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 70c | 110.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 44c | 107.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 32c | 102.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…b925backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed No | 76c | 99.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 26c | 93.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 91.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…29eebacked Yes | 29c | 88.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 85.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked No | 75c | 81.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 79.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 43c | 79.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 34c | 76.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 76.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 38c | 74.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 33c | 73.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 32c | 73.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 68c | 72.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 66.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 65.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 64.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 62.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 30c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 61.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 21c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 34c | 59.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 59.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 31c | 59.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 38c | 58.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 63c | 58.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 56.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 54.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…e326backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 49.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 38c | 48.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 24c | 48.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 48.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 30c | 47.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 47.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 47.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 47.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 72c | 46.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 46.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked Yes | 41c | 46.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 45.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 64c | 45.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 66c | 44.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 44.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 31c | 42.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.