TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,159 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes26c3,412$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.0930919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No74c1,072$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes3c1,023$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.283333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ea…4d20backed Yes2c935.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No74c775.84$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7628839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c502.06$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.297,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes24c400$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c306.93$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.691,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c302.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.012,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes32c292.44$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.653441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes34c255.6$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.857445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c227.51$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.927,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c219.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed No69c199.93$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9812033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c194.87$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes31c183.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.131,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No73c171.63$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1557038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes25c169.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.11,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c168.02$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.894,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes8c153.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes30c153$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes26c148.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes30c148.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3124921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c146.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes43c144.05$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.072536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd707…89d6backed Yes33c139.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed No68c138.05$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.325560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd91…03cbbacked No70c129.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c129.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.142,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes52c127.34$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked No77c126.33$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.593164.5%20 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes36c122.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.313324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c116.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes35c116.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3211038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes32c116.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.67034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes42c115.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7456131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No70c110.41$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd16f…2badbacked Yes44c107.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.27416.2%12 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes32c102.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6114062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c99.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…b925backed Yes31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No76c99.87$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.975846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes26c93.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.115334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No62c91.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.461,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…29eebacked Yes29c88.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c85.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked No75c81.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c79.95$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa19b…3e59backed Yes43c79.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.163033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes34c76.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1532352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c76.56$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb999…b00dbacked Yes38c74.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes33c73.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.272623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes32c73.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3514025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No68c72.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1514158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c66.15$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes23c65.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes25c64.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c62.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.622,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes30c61.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.631836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c61.45$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.792,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes21c60.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes25c59.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c79…8b16backed Yes34c59.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.131323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes35c59.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.511,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes31c59.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552611.5%3 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes38c58.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0712147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba96…7080backed No63c58.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6912560.8%76 W · 49 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No59c56.15$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8657232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No71c54.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.731,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fde…cc92backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52369.6%16 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No74c49.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.621,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes38c48.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.396240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes24c48.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.741046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No72c48.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes30c47.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.329346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No61c47.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5914168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c47.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No62c47.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9819152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x988e…bd82backed No72c46.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1312339%48 W · 75 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c46.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8009…3e9abacked Yes41c46.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.821735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c45.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.433,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No64c45.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3617570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No66c44.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.167946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c44.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f3…92d6backed Yes35c43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.054314%6 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes31c42.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes35c40.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.