Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79d935104c9e27622387c95b310734ed0b4406b1f5ca409dd3f42fdeafea84c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,562$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 17c | 1,313$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 997.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 915.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 3c | 698.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 666.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 610.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 604.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 505.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 498.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 4c | 463.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 34c | 445.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 405.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 6c | 328.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 30c | 313.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 13c | 303.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 15c | 297.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 5c | 295.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 6c | 283.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 276.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…ffd6backed Yes | 9c | 222.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 5c | 206.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…0744backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 175.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 11c | 159.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 8c | 158.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98a…6143backed Yes | 11c | 133.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 133.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…f2c6backed Yes | 8c | 128.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 112.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 103.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 28c | 99.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 86.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 24c | 83.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…1faebacked Yes | 22c | 82.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…89d6backed Yes | 14c | 80.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 16c | 79.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 79.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668a…da78backed Yes | 15c | 76.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 15c | 73.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…3cdbbacked Yes | 31c | 70.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 55.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked Yes | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 66c | 32.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 70c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 74c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.