Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc34adec0925b54cea6cf59753c2772f0603c17525c10f667b2198a4e6da024cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,596$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,149$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 1c | 779.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 688.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 10c | 645.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 12c | 552.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 552.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 523.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 494.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 9c | 483.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 359.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 357.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 346.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 9c | 313.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 7c | 305.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 4c | 299.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 7c | 299.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 5c | 290.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 288.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 6c | 266.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 6c | 258.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8988backed Yes | 12c | 232.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…2108backed Yes | 11c | 214.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 9c | 198.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 9c | 180.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 6c | 174.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 11c | 161.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 146.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 12c | 146.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 143.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 12c | 133.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 13c | 127.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 17c | 120.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 116.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 9c | 111.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 15c | 110.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…b925backed Yes | 27c | 92.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…8fa5backed Yes | 23c | 80.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 14c | 75.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 19c | 68.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…bc46backed Yes | 22c | 57.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…b4d3backed No | 80c | 14.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.