Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c96bf381e7eecf576da778a03af38b74ca3821e509698b27bbf9ef3282f3663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 0c | 54,006$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 732.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 54c | 643.87$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.67 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 435$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 56c | 406.96$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 56c | 308.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.26 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 227.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 8c | 224.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 193.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 45c | 167.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 160.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 62c | 154.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 149.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 148.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 45c | 148.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 138.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 76c | 130.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 48c | 116.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…7f18backed Yes | 48c | 104.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed No | 58c | 100.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 63c | 100.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 70c | 99.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 98.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 65c | 96.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 44c | 93.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 37c | 89.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 38c | 87.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 25c | 86.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 85.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 62c | 81.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 34c | 81.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 80.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 61c | 79.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 65c | 70.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 68.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 66.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 53c | 66.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 65.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 64c | 65.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 64.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 43c | 62.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 59.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 66c | 58.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 33c | 57.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 56.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 48c | 54.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 51.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 69c | 51.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 49.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 40c | 49.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 56c | 46.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…461ebacked Yes | 53c | 46.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 43c | 43.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 41c | 43.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 43c | 42.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 60c | 42.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 42.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 37c | 39.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 57c | 38.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 60c | 38.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 37.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 61c | 37.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 59c | 37.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 37.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 35.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 31c | 35.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 44c | 35.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 42c | 35.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 58c | 33.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 60c | 32.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…841ebacked No | 57c | 31.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…a831backed No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 51c | 31.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…1faebacked Yes | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 67c | 28.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…29eebacked No | 57c | 28.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…8c84backed No | 40c | 28.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 42c | 27.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 25.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 72c | 23.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.