Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6246fc44754d759b32b67dae570ab09a197857e44ae12666c0afd2990e305eac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 0c | 6,088$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 1,011$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 997.74$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 46c | 800.48$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 640.77$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 19c | 626.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.36 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 4c | 540.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 66c | 448.12$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 427.73$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 396.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.08 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 395.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 49c | 317.15$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 5c | 271.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 80c | 200.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 19c | 191.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 37c | 186.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 180.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 75c | 167.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 162.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 160.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 61c | 157.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 155.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 74c | 146.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 144.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 143.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 25c | 132.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed No | 76c | 131.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 16c | 124.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 123.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 21c | 115.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 109.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked No | 59c | 109.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 109.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 11c | 108.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 71c | 108$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked No | 62c | 104.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 100.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…7f18backed Yes | 55c | 99.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 25c | 94.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 91.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 89.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 25c | 86.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 47c | 74.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 80c | 73.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 71.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 20c | 56.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 55.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 23c | 48.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 22c | 48.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 37.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 37.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 37.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 63c | 35.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 72c | 35.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 70c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 33.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…461ebacked Yes | 44c | 26.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 25.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…95e3backed No | 79c | 24.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc634…9b80backed Yes | 79c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 21.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 60c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 74c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 52c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…c28ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 16.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 80c | 15.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…3b5cbacked No | 77c | 14.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e22…924dbacked No | 69c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…8c84backed No | 78c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.