Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc98123c774b8589d6e12033699edf7d00d770e15e85fac51239a99d01458bfc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 719.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 18c | 338.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 18c | 225.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 186.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 163.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 162.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 14c | 158.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 149.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 34c | 128.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 17c | 116.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 20c | 112.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 30c | 109.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 32c | 102.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 86.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 80.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 76.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…db1bbacked Yes | 30c | 74.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 73.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 26c | 70.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 69.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 68.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 67.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 61.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 30c | 59.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed No | 68c | 57.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 57.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 35c | 53.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 28c | 42.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 42.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…841ebacked No | 71c | 40.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 32c | 40.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…1d3dbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d3…def7backed No | 60c | 31.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 31.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 29.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…0702backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 73c | 26.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…2c70backed No | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 68c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked No | 65c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 67c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.