Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff750dfb94f0732c58933496949814a7cea5e9b250fbd85ddcdec8758b378156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3af…33a9backed Yes | 0c | 26,373$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 1c | 4,241$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 1c | 2,844$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 13c | 2,157$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.19 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,120$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 978.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 8c | 935.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 781.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 669.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 3c | 551.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 5c | 541.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 4c | 473.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 3c | 450.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 10c | 358.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 340.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 317.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…a831backed Yes | 6c | 317.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…9756backed Yes | 4c | 253.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 241.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 21c | 211.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 14c | 204.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 6c | 193.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 6c | 176.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 67c | 146.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked No | 78c | 137.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 15c | 116.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 10c | 105.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked Yes | 30c | 101.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 15c | 82.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 24c | 77.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 70c | 58.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…8e27backed Yes | 34c | 54.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…f5f6backed Yes | 40c | 41.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 79c | 24.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 80c | 23.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a8…9829backed No | 66c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.