Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6870a37dc89ec70521c340f89949aada400fe36e118a4d5ed559b88824355d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 60c | 8,262$4,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.49 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…ab54backed No | 2c | 7,843$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…f105backed No | 31c | 2,901$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 5c | 1,800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…4604backed No | 24c | 1,507$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 7c | 1,480$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 66c | 1,400$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 20c | 1,348$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.66 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 37c | 1,345$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 32c | 1,263$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 4c | 1,238$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 34c | 1,225$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked No | 3c | 1,213$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 1,196$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.68 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 18c | 1,169$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb02…eeaebacked No | 7c | 1,123$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 31c | 924$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 67c | 860.38$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.38 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 827.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 625.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 570.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 7c | 556.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 58c | 530.24$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.93 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 43c | 529.66$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.38 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 42c | 515.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.05 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 15c | 514.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a55…f09dbacked No | 6c | 488.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 7c | 464.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 16c | 450$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked No | 34c | 420.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 14c | 409.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…8191backed No | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 20c | 349.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 274.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…07f1backed No | 5c | 274.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 14c | 245.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 39c | 230.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 226.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 39c | 221.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes | 66c | 221.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 34c | 211.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7e…366ebacked Yes | 68c | 211.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd259…76fdbacked No | 36c | 183.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 44c | 179.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 73c | 179.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd044…e007backed No | 15c | 172.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 169.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72e…3e64backed No | 30c | 164.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…5678backed No | 31c | 163.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 37c | 160.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…40e4backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 17c | 151.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 17c | 147.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 143.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 64c | 142.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…d9a6backed No | 38c | 131.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…442abacked No | 24c | 125.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 121.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…212fbacked No | 35c | 115.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…c600backed No | 9c | 109.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 69c | 104$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed No | 21c | 95.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 35c | 85.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 34c | 85.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 36c | 83.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…30bebacked No | 37c | 82.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 77.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…190cbacked No | 33c | 75.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 17c | 69.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 16c | 67.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…f549backed No | 18c | 66.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb4…e490backed No | 33c | 61.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 50c | 61.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 28c | 60.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 23c | 50.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b25…cb00backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 40c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…3921backed No | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 23c | 43.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0255…7a19backed Yes | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 73c | 41.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…e6fbbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…5657backed Yes | 71c | 35.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.