Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92f5f3ed7f185802eef632d1ec2cdf2f3cfaf6204208da664ece36442b7b584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 18c | 514.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 17c | 443.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 79c | 436.57$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 402.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 355.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 78c | 254.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 184.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 80c | 139.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 77c | 133.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 121$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…097dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…3503backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 79.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 78c | 64.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 56.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 75c | 52.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…e957backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 32.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by March 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.