Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6240b403f02a526ae160a1b3cf3a0412c360f2e939c470420e6913c146d70c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 0c | 4,284$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 554.3$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 18c | 437.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 56c | 332.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 77c | 318.87$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 48c | 312.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 289.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 284.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.39 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 31c | 263.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 58c | 263.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 235.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 31c | 209.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d364backed No | 14c | 197$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 74c | 179.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 174.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 15c | 166.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 57c | 158.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 158.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 12c | 158.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 146.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 145.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 50c | 142.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 36c | 142.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 129.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 51c | 128.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 45c | 122.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 46c | 111.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 17c | 110.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 13c | 105.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 62c | 101.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 47c | 96.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d704backed Yes | 70c | 95.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 95.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 52c | 91.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 55c | 84.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 81.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 57c | 80.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…3689backed No | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 30c | 69.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 67.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 62.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 21c | 59.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 32c | 58.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 57.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 25c | 55.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 28c | 51.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 53c | 50.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 52c | 48.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2a…21b6backed No | 46c | 48.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 44.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 41.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 40.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 48c | 40.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 64c | 37.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 37c | 35.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 33.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 58c | 32.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b6…f445backed No | 71c | 32.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 49c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 51c | 29.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 50c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…1417backed Yes | 70c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 62c | 25.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 44c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 66c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 24.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 24.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 49c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 51c | 23.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…94f9backed Yes | 67c | 23.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0a…d177backed No | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 21.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 18.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…e1ccbacked Yes | 55c | 18.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.