Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417be0f289de5b212a925e77beb0d598efe29e86f7961da624ac7fab4314ed37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7234…e457backed Yes | 0c | 8,114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…6cbebacked Yes | 2c | 2,711$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…046dbacked Yes | 6c | 633.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 550.27$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 73c | 390.48$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.76 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 382.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 328.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 309.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 305.86$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…5743backed Yes | 6c | 294.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 26c | 256.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 245.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 198.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 195.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 19c | 177.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 177.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 30c | 170.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 14c | 153.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 139.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 10c | 138.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…69aebacked Yes | 22c | 124.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 107.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 19c | 105.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 30c | 104.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 75c | 104.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 12c | 103.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 100.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 20c | 99.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 36c | 99.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 32c | 98.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 96.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 95.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 93.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 46c | 91.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 86.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 84.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 83.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b221backed No | 67c | 72.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 73c | 69.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 67.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 79c | 59.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…0f04backed No | 66c | 58.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d704backed Yes | 43c | 58.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 19c | 57.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 34c | 54.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 53.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 21c | 52.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 28c | 49.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 43.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 42.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 73c | 33.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 28.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…4776backed No | 72c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 65c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 71c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 78c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 77c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 70c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.