Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6fb96881aa0a0588681e9280f728f80078530c18285b47a1ec6dfce91c4ac1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 27c | 259.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 245.39$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…a392backed Yes | 5c | 213.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 196.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 79c | 184.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 173.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 27c | 159.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 158.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked Yes | 32c | 142.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 140.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 136.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 10c | 131.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 77c | 98.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 97.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 24c | 96.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 20c | 91.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 30c | 81.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 77.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 76.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 73.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 28c | 72.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 36c | 61.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 28c | 52.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 35c | 50.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 77c | 48.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…0ed9backed Yes | 24c | 45.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 44.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 44.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 36c | 41.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 40.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 34.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 35c | 33.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 70c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 66c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 16.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.