Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1210e3416943687bfefd233abf54c1d90d2536b35d743f2f296858fb2867383c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 3c | 776.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 46c | 643.23$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.94 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 29c | 461.12$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 412.61$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.29 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 299.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 73c | 274.65$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 36c | 250$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 53c | 162.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 36c | 155.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 127.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 47c | 119.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 107.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 54c | 95.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 46c | 93.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…4478backed No | 52c | 91.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 46c | 88.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 47c | 75.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 48c | 73.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 54c | 68.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 58c | 67.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 47c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 63c | 59.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 54.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 36c | 51.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 65c | 48.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 48.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 45.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 58c | 44.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 56c | 42.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 69c | 42.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 72c | 40.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 31c | 37.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 54c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 70c | 34.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 48c | 34.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 48c | 30.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes | 47c | 29.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 55c | 28.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 50c | 27.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…2748backed Yes | 41c | 26.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 26.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 26.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…658abacked Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…b414backed No | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 53c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 58c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 53c | 19.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 54c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked No | 68c | 17.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 66c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 70c | 14.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.