Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64c6b71aec0e620ff8ec0f27df7d805004b36d65dcfea37ed424bcdd79919cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 3c | 10,111$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.97 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 0c | 3,944$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 2c | 3,239$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 2,239$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,046$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 21c | 861.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 779.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 2c | 631.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 516.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 69c | 477.65$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 334.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 263.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe476…cbe4backed No | 78c | 250.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 11c | 246.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 231.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 5c | 219.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 6c | 214.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360e…c70abacked No | 77c | 153.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 25c | 144.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 20c | 134.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 21c | 130.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 14c | 124.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 105.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 11c | 101.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed Yes | 13c | 101.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 97.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 31c | 92.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked Yes | 30c | 91.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 20c | 87.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 23c | 80.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 25c | 78.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…3cdbbacked Yes | 26c | 70.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked Yes | 16c | 61.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 28c | 49.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 49.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 45.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 79c | 37.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 37.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 37.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…1c05backed No | 79c | 32.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…bbe0backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 77c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…9a97backed No | 74c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 80c | 16.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.