Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf82f0d4a8485c0d1fed4d3828194409fb3a5b5a3cea1f2bdae72645b3838af3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 75c | 4,549$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.62 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 0c | 2,163$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 1,666$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 14c | 947.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 23c | 938.75$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.98 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 14c | 752.05$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed Yes | 43c | 714.75$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 26c | 584.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 19c | 385.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 306.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 304.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 44c | 256.48$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 22c | 253.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b98…2748backed Yes | 7c | 239.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 73c | 224.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 75c | 218.65$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 202$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 23c | 201.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 194.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 24c | 162.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 65c | 148.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 137.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 9c | 125.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 120.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 77c | 98.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 23c | 92.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 18c | 91.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 20c | 76.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 71.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 69.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 69.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 63.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 21c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 59.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…3286backed Yes | 35c | 54.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 51.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 79c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 28c | 42.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 37.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked No | 79c | 37.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 38c | 34.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 67c | 33.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 76c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed No | 69c | 25.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 63c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 80c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…b414backed No | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.