Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a649caa067bd1f29b09a2e0f1f7958facbbb8a72288c89c42b202d8f61fda7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f8e…8fc0backed No | 1c | 1,647$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 1,219$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.23 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 1,024$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 480.62$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 51c | 454.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.51 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 22c | 225.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.21 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 15c | 221.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 216.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 7c | 214.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 29c | 200.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 183.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 65c | 171.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 151.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 62c | 139.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 35c | 138.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 61c | 126.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 124.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 123.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 12c | 114$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 67c | 107.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 76c | 103.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 102.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…2fe6backed No | 51c | 101.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 97.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 23c | 92.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 89.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 71.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 70.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…98edbacked No | 77c | 63.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed No | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 34c | 56.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 45c | 55.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 53.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 45c | 51.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 37c | 49.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 44.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…de2dbacked No | 79c | 43.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 45c | 42.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7959backed Yes | 37c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 50c | 41.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 40.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 59c | 40.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 33c | 39.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 37c | 37.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 33c | 34.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 33.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 57c | 30.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 52c | 29.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 62c | 26.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…12cebacked Yes | 39c | 25.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 25.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 48c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…8c84backed No | 62c | 19.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 66c | 19.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 59c | 17.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked No | 80c | 15.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.