Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b42f8043955b46d9be90e7bc3290eb8f5f80c74abcab82de273fda6b4aa227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 62c | 1,065$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.28 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 1c | 940.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 864.57$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 445.55$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 55c | 421.23$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.56 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde16…033bbacked No | 72c | 407.27$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 65c | 357.63$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.58 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 47c | 301.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 20c | 257.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 38c | 213.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…b1e6backed Yes | 67c | 198.04$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 30c | 162.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 34c | 143.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 16c | 143.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 140.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 130.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 125.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 115.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7959backed Yes | 31c | 110.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 98.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 39c | 96.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 87.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 34c | 85.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 84.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 54c | 69.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 67.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 17c | 65.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 23c | 64.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 64.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 35c | 63.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 60.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 31c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 19c | 59.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 30c | 58.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 50c | 54.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 57c | 53.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 25c | 53.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 50.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 30c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 49.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 58c | 49.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…112dbacked Yes | 31c | 46.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 31c | 46.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 23c | 46.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 39c | 40.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 72c | 36.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 70c | 35.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…12cebacked Yes | 76c | 33.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 71c | 33.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 57c | 31.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 54c | 31.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 30.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 29.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 47c | 29.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 25.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 24.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa694…ae81backed Yes | 69c | 24.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked No | 43c | 24.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 75c | 23.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 69c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…8c84backed No | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 73c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 73c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 58c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 59c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 77c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed No | 71c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 74c | 16.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 71c | 14.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.