TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc377…593fbacked No62c1,065$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.2813964%89 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c3…5928backed Yes1c940.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.891414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c864.57$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.815,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c445.55$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No55c421.23$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.562,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde16…033bbacked No72c407.27$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.89100%9 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes65c357.63$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5819427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes47c301.37$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7312033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No20c257.96$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.431,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182a…f847backed No38c213.16$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.118762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa233…b1e6backed Yes67c198.04$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.871136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick66cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes30c162.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7123035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes34c143.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9219338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes16c143.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c140.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes25c130.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2965627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes25c125.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.721,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c115.96$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.774,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c4…7959backed Yes31c110.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.15540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2956118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c98.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.679,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1103…57e3backed Yes39c96.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.46355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c87.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No34c85.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9426327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No52c84.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.431,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed No54c69.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6313260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c67.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.357,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…3304backed Yes17c65.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.059830.6%30 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes23c64.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.781827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes27c64.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3514829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes35c63.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.243644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes79c60.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0930046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No41c60.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4518041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes31c59.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5937644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No19c59.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.588138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes30c58.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No50c54.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.041,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x567a…fb35backed No57c53.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.995547.3%26 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes25c53.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c50.69$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes30c50.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1416935.5%60 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8473…5511backed Yes25c49.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.499128.6%26 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…6604backed No58c49.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9812856.3%72 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…112dbacked Yes31c46.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes31c46.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.432532%8 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed No23c46.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.668521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.051,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b7f…7076backed Yes39c40.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.722030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes72c36.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0829748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No70c35.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.828356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…12cebacked Yes76c33.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No71c33.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.74070%28 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No73c32.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8840777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x815c…1082backed No57c31.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No54c31.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No75c30.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.642469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c29.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.722,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed Yes78c29.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.892157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes47c29.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c27.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c26.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No68c25.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.091,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed Yes74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.59453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c24.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.962,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa694…ae81backed Yes69c24.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e6…762ebacked No43c24.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.83043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes75c23.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.776750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed No69c23.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.38676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No72c21.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.932669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes70c20.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2727463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce82…8c84backed No68c20.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c20.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.042,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No73c19.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3215954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No73c19.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.323580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x481c…2325backed No58c19.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3212365%80 W · 43 L+12.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No73c19.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3822675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes59c19.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.629741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.549164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c18.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No77c17.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.119668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c17.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5685…3056backed No71c17.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.143132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No74c16.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c16.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.051,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e84…e08dbacked No74c15.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.021580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed Yes71c14.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4724262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c14.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8349…bb03backed Yes78c12.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.013033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No79c12.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.71,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.