Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaba9c660b2ef3bc0d26bb1985d07d883f96422237a54dd9b07150598047d2b6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 1c | 4,399$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 13c | 515.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 350.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 301.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 298.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 289.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 258.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 255.57$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 239.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 20c | 238.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 229.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 184.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 79c | 176.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…411abacked Yes | 30c | 161.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 30c | 151.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 149.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 140.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 114.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked Yes | 25c | 110.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 37c | 99.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 95.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 17c | 89.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 89.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 81.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 22c | 81.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 78.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 73.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 69.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 65.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 29c | 57.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 56.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 51.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 50.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 26c | 49.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 47.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…01b6backed Yes | 23c | 43.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 37.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 34.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 24.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed No | 79c | 19.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.