TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$222,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9926…d409backed Yes0c21,602$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes6c12,118$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.8816724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes10c8,188$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.44,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes6c6,258$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.831124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes3c5,250$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c5,008$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.572,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes11c4,294$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2333018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes1c4,078$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19bc…286cbacked Yes13c3,466$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.78339.1%3 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-75%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37e3…76ecbacked Yes24c3,382$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes6c2,539$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.518946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes27c2,383$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.0253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes5c2,192$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5813533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes13c1,884$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2918052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes9c1,690$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.481,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes19c1,656$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.96219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe4…d1c0backed No65c1,597$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.133441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes7c1,560$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes15c1,516$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6711930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed Yes9c1,506$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No75c1,487$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.9916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes7c1,428$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.932944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c1,350$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.351,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes11c1,298$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.741,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed Yes12c1,242$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.051216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c1,058$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5572624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes5c930.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e7…5744backed Yes11c925.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes15c856.27$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5428517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…d384backed Yes6c820$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.341486.8%10 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes11c786.24$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes13c745.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes6c735.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0514135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes6c732.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1767.9%6 W · 70 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ab…9bd5backed Yes14c723.87$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c715.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.081,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7126…658abacked Yes9c714$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes8c703.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes8c683.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0319123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes12c664.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked Yes9c625$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes17c608.09$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.887524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed Yes11c596.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6119353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cae…def2backed No76c589.45$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.243669.4%25 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb676…9611backed Yes4c577.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes9c571.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked No77c499.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1158016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c484.65$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes3c468.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9918530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes10c455.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed Yes16c455$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.84231%13 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes11c454.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes2c421.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0226834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes12c418.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1419720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes9c412$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.496219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc729…7534backed Yes12c403.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes5c399.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.245127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd801…ab8bbacked Yes27c383.77$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-69.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed No73c378.45$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1711565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes19c338.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7776924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed Yes13c337.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.246717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes13c324.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.627913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e45…4815backed Yes14c320.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c311.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ce…3af1backed Yes15c311.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.733522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes6c306.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4813315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e8…37b4backed Yes13c304.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.25812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+102.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd393…0744backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15502%1 W · 49 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5685…3056backed Yes16c297.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.033132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No60c292.13$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.423473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed Yes12c278.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.12030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes21c272.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9489951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes24c264.43$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.28143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c257.28$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.31,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fb…87f7backed Yes14c252.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.181520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…4c87backed Yes9c246.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322a…096fbacked Yes15c236.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.816622.7%15 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c227.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.312,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa0…8b8ebacked Yes12c225.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.74911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-77.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94da…25b5backed Yes12c222.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.253707.8%29 W · 341 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…ffd6backed Yes9c220.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0367…694dbacked Yes21c218.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd542…b1d1backed Yes12c216.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.451428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked Yes10c215.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.214233.3%14 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No70c214.79$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3914744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb263…bbffbacked Yes15c213.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x566c…8067backed Yes12c208.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Yes7c201.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes16c197.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8218327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes13c197.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d7…0c95backed Yes15c195.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No79c195.71$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9628839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70f…4306backed Yes15c192.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes20c183.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b57…a392backed Yes14c182.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51a4…676cbacked Yes9c181.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes10c180$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.926327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6026…0b84backed Yes13c179.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes12c173.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes6c170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.