TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,519 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e3…76ecbacked Yes17c3,279$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes2c1,900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.71,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c1,669$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.574,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes2c1,119$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.01170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed No77c843.9$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.042030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes12c787.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.818052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes11c749.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes34c705.65$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.45,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes38c696.71$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.83219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes19c591.2$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6776924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes28c571.58$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.221,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes5c569.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c561.33$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes14c429.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0926834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes22c409.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4419338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes18c366.93$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes16c330.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.21419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes15c329.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.142,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes19c292.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.521,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c280.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes11c258.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0519720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Yes20c251.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19bc…286cbacked Yes44c234.66$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.08339.1%3 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-75%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes12c223.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4816320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes11c218.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.381,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c212.66$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes12c207.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8894919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c204.54$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Yes50c188.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.04911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c179.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.752,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c164.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.48,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes20c160.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.831827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c151.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes20c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf4…0b7fbacked Yes14c149.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…69aebacked Yes33c142.84$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes23c138.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c34…57f6backed Yes22c131.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.172425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No69c124.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes18c120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes22c119.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.632920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes11c118.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4681234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes13c116.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.387326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes27c113.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c113.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.599,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes18c110.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked No78c105.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.057445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes15c101.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.989653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.958872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed No73c99.73$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.935543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd232…30d4backed Yes24c96.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed Yes16c94.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.866717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c93.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.226219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed No66c92.96$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.615565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No37c92.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2316335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c91.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x974c…7ba3backed Yes30c89.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.962725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes37c88.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ff…13eabacked Yes13c88.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes24c88.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2321235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a96…b81abacked Yes17c84.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.396949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f4…5944backed No44c80.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.493531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f40…887cbacked Yes14c77.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.045614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.867633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bfe…fa0bbacked Yes15c69.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes29c64.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes16c62.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes16c62.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes16c61.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed Yes37c61.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.579054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No73c61.09$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8de…614dbacked No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.44325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes26c55.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.359142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed Yes19c54.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.385444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes25c53.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3613042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes24c50.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2314744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed No72c49.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes23c49.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2139535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No58c47.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1683360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…e168backed No76c45.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.892864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes53c39.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9710327.2%28 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No70c35.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7111652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No65c34.07$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.091,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No47c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2714135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c19.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.029,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No78c19.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No78c19.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.287266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf9…96e1backed No80c15.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.185749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.