Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x589dfe414b8c2bd019dfd5f42aa5afa484e5c4c2bb478e4e9a862b364b2b1ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 6,810$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 4,024$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 5c | 2,726$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.34 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…76ecbacked Yes | 4c | 2,248$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,990$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 1,758$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,550$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 8c | 1,246$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 997.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 806.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 700.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 6c | 697.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 15c | 623.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 6c | 544.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed Yes | 6c | 513.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 501.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 8c | 481.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 16c | 466.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 457.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 8c | 446.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 3c | 421.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 408.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 327$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 306.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Yes | 12c | 306.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 13c | 289.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 13c | 279.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 279.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed Yes | 13c | 275.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 271.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 19c | 267.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 12c | 237.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 14c | 218.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…1957backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 192.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…e047backed Yes | 10c | 184.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 14c | 174.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…4bd7backed Yes | 11c | 168.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked Yes | 15c | 153.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 10c | 147.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 144.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 15c | 143.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…ab8bbacked Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 11c | 130.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 12c | 110.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 107.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 17c | 106.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…ddfbbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 19c | 96.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 14c | 85.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 14c | 83.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 18c | 58.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031e…372abacked Yes | 21c | 56.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 19c | 54.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 39.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 79c | 38.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.