Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3615b1d929a261b59189c0477f621b94937b4a02ce4e4216bc9c9019b5fc12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 580.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 8c | 506.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 356.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 286.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 236.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 232.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 166.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 110.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 90.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 30c | 77.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 73.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 33c | 72.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 39c | 64.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 28c | 64.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 75c | 63.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 65c | 63.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 35c | 62.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 59.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 57.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Yes | 39c | 57.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 34c | 55.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 46.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 29c | 44.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 42c | 43.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 36c | 42.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 40.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 36c | 37.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 67c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 35.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 33.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 65c | 33.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…6aaebacked No | 64c | 30.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 38c | 28.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 40c | 26.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 70c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.