Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb29ce45360433b7bb3beaa9bdc6af1bc4602f06cfee6548594d4d8a7f159f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 19c | 537.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 526.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 42c | 447.14$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 345.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 281.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 16c | 267.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 264.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 260.62$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 256.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 21c | 160.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 157.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 14c | 144.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 122.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 114$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 75c | 103.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 99.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 46c | 97.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 91.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 89.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 52c | 88.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 88.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…f56bbacked No | 78c | 87.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 26c | 83.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 21c | 82.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 80.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 77.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 17c | 77.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 19c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 72.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 16c | 71.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 71.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 68.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 26c | 65.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…add7backed No | 58c | 63.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 28c | 61.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 21c | 58.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 53c | 56.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 36c | 56.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 35c | 54.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 72c | 49.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 62c | 48.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 46c | 48.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 48.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 47.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 29c | 40.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…3c72backed No | 66c | 39.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 39.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 47c | 39.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 37.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…a95cbacked Yes | 36c | 35.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…6969backed Yes | 40c | 35.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743b…d0fdbacked Yes | 50c | 33.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 59c | 32.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 36c | 30.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 29.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 28.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 61c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 21.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 67c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 75c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…e63abacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.