Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6961c2e5d569c879832881103ec0b2086a6ee954e76cef1b04dbd7225e97846e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 2,029$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 29c | 1,723$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.78 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 69c | 954.94$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.78 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 71c | 801.5$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 58c | 499.04$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.59 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 74c | 456.4$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 396.53$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 395.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 355.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 21c | 295.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.43 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 78c | 262.16$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 229.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 10c | 226.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.17 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 71c | 219.75$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 76c | 216.54$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 199.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 197.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 195.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 147.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 141.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 69c | 139.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 11c | 133.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 73c | 130.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…4dd9backed No | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 129.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 114.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 70c | 103.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 94.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 94.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 80c | 82.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 74.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d3c1backed Yes | 69c | 73.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 70c | 69.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 68.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…9aeebacked Yes | 71c | 63.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 16c | 63.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 37c | 50.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 77c | 50.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…f56bbacked Yes | 71c | 48.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 49c | 46.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 56c | 44.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 78c | 39.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…096fbacked Yes | 70c | 29.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked Yes | 71c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Yes | 72c | 26.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…8e3bbacked Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…ce47backed Yes | 76c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 78c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 78c | 14.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.