TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$381,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$386,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6bd…2bd4backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…ab0abacked No61c17,654$10,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,798.03540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x053d…caedbacked Yes52c16,185$8,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,412.482821.4%6 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No62c11,553$7,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.3738237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes30c9,825$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,960.333537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-25.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No46c9,762$4,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,273.1921259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c90…79f4backed Yes2c8,062$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-92.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2078…bc90backed Yes61c7,417$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,529.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-84%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes28c7,088$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.428247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes11c6,769$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.8622333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes35c5,456$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.7264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf99f…8742backed Yes43c3,516$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes40c3,313$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.1110837%40 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes18c3,006$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.2848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No71c2,811$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.9111357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes22c2,700$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.212326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes61c2,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.9926429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.975238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed No79c1,890$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.69757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c1,878$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.543717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes6c1,800$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes19c1,695$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.1835921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes32c1,625$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.016011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed Yes37c1,624$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.646535.4%23 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e19…bd99backed Yes35c1,577$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5452536%9 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c1,473$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.1367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes32c1,453$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.2121521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes42c1,444$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.887648.7%37 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes3c1,418$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.47020%14 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606e…6b3abacked No45c1,400$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7727576%57 W · 18 L+12.3wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+34.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes36c1,360$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.224520%9 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Yes38c1,318$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Yes28c1,279$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.028159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes28c1,259$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.7110132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed No39c1,258$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.312378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed No53c1,251$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.812055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes41c1,238$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.1628734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No78c1,211$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.9828827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes45c1,157$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.43043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No60c1,065$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.611850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1415…9752backed No67c1,052$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8c…a31abacked Yes59c1,049$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.2650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c1,048$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.444769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No54c1,038$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.1819056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes46c1,016$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6224149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282f…3c26backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes7c999.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes21c984.44$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes51c981.74$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed No46c980.22$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.441978.9%15 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.32per pick47cpaid+172.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc70b…08d6backed Yes2c978.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes26c965.78$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.972356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed Yes53c929.56$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.673240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No55c914.31$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.1810335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5c…25c3backed No67c893.02$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No76c887.99$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3335355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes51c879.69$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.082010%2 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes29c844.14$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.058937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No72c826.05$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0925843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes33c820.09$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1128126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d09…4156backed Yes25c790.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes41c783.84$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes59c773.5$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes31c732.1$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.332857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes33c730.63$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8536626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes14c728.64$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3928427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0849…bb6dbacked Yes43c705.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-54%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes27c701.65$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9314944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f47…9387backed Yes47c700$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3265525.5%14 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x92e2…1a7cbacked No43c700$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3991741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+268%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed No40c699.59$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.019116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes8c675.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3826619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06e…e82dbacked Yes34c672.9$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes10c664.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes37c663.71$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.447935.4%28 W · 51 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc485…c2a2backed Yes30c659.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+68.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3994…230ebacked Yes13c659.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1e…08f0backed No74c656.16$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.393458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+301.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No69c640$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4314129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes65c638.41$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.4210151.5%52 W · 49 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+35.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b2c…a9f3backed No61c629.76$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.612050%10 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5a9…f643backed No53c628.85$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.751275%9 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+194.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes13c627.23$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5416526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed Yes30c617.69$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.833237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes53c600$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3155232.7%17 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1327413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e87…3534backed No52c600$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.434850%24 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c592$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.771,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e37…5b59backed Yes3c586.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick5cpaid+211.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40c7…cd0fbacked Yes2c579$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes18c549.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No56c544.34$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.8236227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No37c538.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.6933337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c534.29$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0612223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd13e…356cbacked Yes19c529.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.18147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No52c513.99$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.1215436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc348…8097backed Yes33c500.27$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1641428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+95.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6821631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cef…af02backed Yes53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes13c499.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654119.5%8 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.