Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafbb2da36141abeffe30d6fbdca5f9cd7f8113a70a1e243ed03ef5a6004a104e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $381,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $386,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6bd…2bd4backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…ab0abacked No | 61c | 17,654$10,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,798.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 52c | 16,185$8,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,412.48 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 62c | 11,553$7,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,443.37 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 30c | 9,825$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.33 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 9,762$4,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,273.19 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…79f4backed Yes | 2c | 8,062$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed Yes | 61c | 7,417$4,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,529.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 28c | 7,088$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.42 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 11c | 6,769$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.86 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 5,456$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,896.72 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 43c | 3,516$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 40c | 3,313$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.11 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 18c | 3,006$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.28 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 71c | 2,811$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.91 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,700$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 61c | 2,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.97 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed No | 79c | 1,890$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,878$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,695$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.18 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 32c | 1,625$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.01 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 37c | 1,624$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.64 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…bd99backed Yes | 35c | 1,577$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 1,473$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.13 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 32c | 1,453$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.21 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 42c | 1,444$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.88 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,418$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 45c | 1,400$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 36c | 1,360$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.22 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…65cebacked Yes | 38c | 1,318$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 28c | 1,279$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.02 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +11.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 28c | 1,259$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.71 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 39c | 1,258$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.31 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 53c | 1,251$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 41c | 1,238$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.16 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 1,211$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.98 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked Yes | 45c | 1,157$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 60c | 1,065$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…9752backed No | 67c | 1,052$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…a31abacked Yes | 59c | 1,049$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,048$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 54c | 1,038$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.18 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 46c | 1,016$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.62 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…3c26backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 7c | 999.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 984.44$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 51c | 981.74$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed No | 46c | 980.22$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.44 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 47cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…08d6backed Yes | 2c | 978.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 26c | 965.78$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.97 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed Yes | 53c | 929.56$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 55c | 914.31$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.18 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…25c3backed No | 67c | 893.02$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 76c | 887.99$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 51c | 879.69$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 29c | 844.14$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.05 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 72c | 826.05$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 33c | 820.09$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.11 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…4156backed Yes | 25c | 790.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 41c | 783.84$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.91 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 59c | 773.5$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 31c | 732.1$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 33c | 730.63$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.85 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 728.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…bb6dbacked Yes | 43c | 705.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 27c | 701.65$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.93 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 47c | 700$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…1a7cbacked No | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +268%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 40c | 699.59$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.01 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 675.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…e82dbacked Yes | 34c | 672.9$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 664.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 37c | 663.71$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.44 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 30c | 659.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…230ebacked Yes | 13c | 659.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…08f0backed No | 74c | 656.16$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +301.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 69c | 640$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 65c | 638.41$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.42 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed No | 61c | 629.76$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…f643backed No | 53c | 628.85$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 13c | 627.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 30c | 617.69$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 53c | 600$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…3534backed No | 52c | 600$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.43 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 592$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5b59backed Yes | 3c | 586.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…cd0fbacked Yes | 2c | 579$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 18c | 549.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 56c | 544.34$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 37c | 538.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.69 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 534.29$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 19c | 529.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 52c | 513.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.12 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…8097backed Yes | 33c | 500.27$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 13c | 499.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?No won
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.