Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1bdbb044eb10d751a7245adb9a9265b60d193cb79107ea3a746f4bd1b2adfba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $717,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $646,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $717,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 0c | 34,837$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a37cbacked Yes | 10c | 26,506$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 12c | 23,301$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.06 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 8c | 17,746$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.26 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…21cdbacked Yes | 3c | 15,193$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 9c | 15,171$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.36 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…ed58backed Yes | 7c | 13,800$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 5c | 8,638$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.93 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…3c7ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,497$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 8c | 8,438$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 2c | 6,200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 11c | 5,986$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 9c | 5,488$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.1 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 13c | 5,359$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.38 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 5,235$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.81 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 13c | 4,988$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 15c | 4,820$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.06 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 7c | 4,733$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.48 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…a6e9backed Yes | 7c | 4,644$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed Yes | 19c | 4,366$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,152$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.97 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 6c | 4,079$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 11c | 4,040$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.13 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,913$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 10c | 3,603$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.53 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 25c | 3,216$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.91 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 7c | 3,120$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 3,051$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…356cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,880$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 75c | 2,705$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.3 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 15c | 2,701$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 14c | 2,483$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.05 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…ea7abacked Yes | 8c | 2,477$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 2,277$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d29…a996backed Yes | 5c | 2,198$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 2,024$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.36 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 15c | 2,004$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,997$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 76c | 1,860$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,797$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 1c | 1,794$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,765$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.42 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…fb97backed Yes | 16c | 1,687$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.71 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,675$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.71 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 12c | 1,632$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe543…ecd4backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d35…d9aabacked Yes | 19c | 1,339$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 9c | 1,327$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,301$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes | 12c | 1,300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 10c | 1,285$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 76c | 1,268$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.54 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…bc2fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,225$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 10c | 1,215$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…74b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…14a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,165$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…1867backed No | 78c | 1,160$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,149$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 15c | 1,140$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 10c | 1,138$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,073$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,057$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 16c | 1,051$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.31 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 16c | 1,016$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2edfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,004$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…4286backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 10c | 979.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 933.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…49d8backed Yes | 11c | 901$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1870…5012backed Yes | 2c | 900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 79c | 873.73$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 5c | 854.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…7024backed Yes | 3c | 839.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 19c | 834.94$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc309…2298backed Yes | 9c | 833.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 817.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…7d7cbacked Yes | 11c | 804.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…ab21backed Yes | 25c | 797.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 788.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 5c | 783.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 8c | 779.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 16c | 778.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…8b2bbacked Yes | 9c | 777.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 9c | 777.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 17c | 755.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 7c | 751.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 12c | 750$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 736.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?No won
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.