TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0e19…bd99

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Commodities, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2536%9 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$89.68
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$113
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,220.88
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$545
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,916Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,916
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$117.97
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,495Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,495
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.68
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$635
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$265.3
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,898Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,898.01
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+170.1%+$340.13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$96.97
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,429Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+102%+$1,457.23
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+512.6%+$2,050.54
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+89.9%+$418.91
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,286Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+281.7%+$3,622.84
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,070
All 25 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-67.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$679Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$316.75
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+77.2%+$225.99
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 165 and 179 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 150 and 164 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win 180 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$99.81
All 10 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$23.09
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$700.99
RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$638Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$638.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$373.37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.